'r':4 'r-sc':3 'sc':5 'scott':2 'senat':6 'tim':1

'elis':1 'ny':5 'r':4 'r-ni':3 'repres':6 'stefanik':2

'governor':5 'kristi':1 'noem':2 'r':3 'sd':4

'd':3 'governor':5 'gretchen':1 'michigan':4 'whitmer':2

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the 

, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the 

Resolves provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes.

How "Other" works: I will add more top candidates to this question. If you bet on "Other" that is the same as betting on all candidates that are added after your bet.

2024 US Presidential Election

US Politics

🗳️ Politics

OpenAI announces something called "GPT-4.5" or very close to it

'-4.5':6 'announc':2 'call':4 'close':9 'gpt':5 'openai':1 'someth':3

OpenAI announces something new related to Sora

'announc':2 'new':4 'openai':1 'relat':5 'someth':3 'sora':7

OpenAI announces something new related to Voice Engine

'announc':2 'engin':8 'new':4 'openai':1 'relat':5 'someth':3 'voic':7

OpenAI announces something new related to DALL-E

'announc':2 'dall':8 'dall-':7 'e':9 'new':4 'openai':1 'relat':5 'someth':3

'altman':2 'magic/magical/etc':4 'sam':1 'say':3

OpenAI announces something new related to music generation

'announc':2 'generat':8 'music':7 'new':4 'openai':1 'relat':5 'someth':3

Immediate or scheduled public rollout (even if gradual) of Sora

'even':6 'gradual':8 'immedi':1 'public':4 'rollout':5 'schedul':3 'sora':10

'chatbot':6 'gpt2':5 'gpt2-chatbot':4 'mention':2 'someon':1

Update on the partnership with Figure/humanoid robots

'figure/humanoid':6 'partnership':4 'robot':7 'updat':1

OpenAI announces an improvement to GPT-4 similiar to GPT-4-Turbo, which is not major enough to be called GPT-4.5 or GPT-5

'-4':7,11 '-4.5':22 '-5':25 'announc':2 'call':20 'enough':17 'gpt':6,10,21,24 'improv':4 'major':16 'openai':1 'similiar':8 'turbo':12

Temporary technical issues (e.g. mic, presentation, lights, ..., not working)

'e.g':4 'issu':3 'light':7 'mic':5 'present':6 'technic':2 'temporari':1 'work':9

Actual presentation (person talking, video, ...) starts before 10:05 AM

'05':9 '10':8 'actual':1 'person':3 'present':2 'start':6 'talk':4 'video':5

"Regulation" is mentioned, in a legal/policy context

'context':7 'legal/policy':6 'mention':3 'regul':1

A tangible product/device is demonstrated

'demonstr':5 'product/device':3 'tangibl':2

Someone from another (not OAI) company joins on stage

'anoth':3 'compani':6 'join':7 'oai':5 'someon':1 'stage':9

Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity Steering Committee mentioned

'authent':6 'coalit':1 'committe':8 'content':3 'mention':9 'proven':4 'steer':7

'mention':3 'partnership':2 'stackoverflow':1

'competitor':3 'googl':1 'mention':4 'search':2

Any mention of the redirect from chat.openai.com to chatgpt.com

'chat.openai.com':7 'chatgpt.com':9 'mention':2 'redirect':5

Mention of AI used by researchers (use cases, how it can help them, etc.)

'ai':3 'case':8 'etc':14 'help':12 'mention':1 'research':6 'use':4,7

The LMSys Chatbot Arena is referenced or shown 

'arena':4 'chatbot':3 'lmsys':2 'referenc':6 'shown':8

At least one specific industry mentioned as userbase or a use case for AI tools

'ai':14 'case':12 'industri':5 'least':2 'mention':6 'one':3 'specif':4 'tool':15 'use':11 'userbas':8

Someone says "patience" or "patient" (not as a noun)

'noun':9 'patienc':3 'patient':5 'say':2 'someon':1

Altman lied about what would be featured at the event in his X posts

'altman':1 'event':10 'featur':7 'lie':2 'post':14 'would':5 'x':13

In the market creator's opinion, the average reaction to the event by journalists is "mixed" or negative

'averag':8 'creator':4 'event':12 'journalist':14 'market':3 'mix':16 'negat':18 'opinion':6 'reaction':9

Any type of new software, AI or not, usable by anyone in the United States willing to pay, is released by OpenAI on the day of the event

'ai':6 'anyon':11 'day':25 'event':28 'new':4 'openai':22 'pay':18 'releas':20 'softwar':5 'state':15 'type':2 'unit':14 'usabl':9 'will':16

In the market creator's opinion, a live demonstration of an OpenAI product is marred by a bug

'bug':18 'creator':4 'demonstr':9 'live':8 'mar':15 'market':3 'openai':12 'opinion':6 'product':13

Any of this words: "Agent", "Agents" or "Agentic" are mentioned

Sam Altman says something along the lines of “what we have now is nothing/laughable compared to what is coming later this year/next year.” 

'along':5 'altman':2 'come':19 'compar':15 'later':20 'line':7 'nothing/laughable':14 'sam':1 'say':3 'someth':4 'year':23 'year/next':22

The start of the stream is delayed at least 5 minutes

'5':10 'delay':7 'least':9 'minut':11 'start':2 'stream':5

GPT-4 becomes cheaper (API price reduced)

'-4':2 'api':5 'becom':3 'cheaper':4 'gpt':1 'price':6 'reduc':7

Presenters give away $10,000 or more in total of free stuff as part of presentation

'000':5 '10':4 'away':3 'free':11 'give':2 'part':14 'present':1,16 'stuff':12 'total':9

The official stream pictures someone wearing a mask (for COVID-19 prevention)

'-19':11 'covid':10 'mask':8 'offici':2 'pictur':4 'prevent':12 'someon':5 'stream':3 'wear':6

An OpenAI employee makes a major gaffe (in the market creator's opinion) that is featured on the front page of the New York Times

'creator':11 'employe':3 'featur':16 'front':19 'gaff':7 'major':6 'make':4 'market':10 'new':23 'openai':2 'opinion':13 'page':20 'time':25 'york':24

Something related to phone calls and ChatGPT

'call':5 'chatgpt':7 'phone':4 'relat':2 'someth':1

Any mention of deepfakes (including any reference to audio or video identity spoofing)

'audio':9 'deepfak':4 'ident':12 'includ':5 'mention':2 'refer':7 'spoof':13 'video':11

Films or the film industry (or related topics) mentioned

'film':1,4 'industri':5 'mention':9 'relat':7 'topic':8

Announcement of software that can automatically make phone calls on user's behalf

'announc':1 'automat':6 'behalf':13 'call':9 'make':7 'phone':8 'softwar':3 'user':11

Announcement of generally intelligent model using speech as input and speech as output, with no intermediate models

'announc':1 'general':3 'input':9 'intellig':4 'intermedi':16 'model':5,17 'output':13 'speech':7,11 'use':6

Greg Brockman creates a new AI voice assistant/personality during the demo and gives it a custom name

'ai':6 'assistant/personality':8 'brockman':2 'creat':3 'custom':16 'demo':11 'give':13 'greg':1 'name':17 'new':5 'voic':7

Someone says “magic” during the livestream

'livestream':6 'magic':3 'say':2 'someon':1

OpenAI announces improved memory abilities for ChatGPT

'abil':5 'announc':2 'chatgpt':7 'improv':3 'memori':4 'openai':1

'altman':2 'blue':6 'sam':1 'shirt':9 't-shirt':7 'wear':4

'altman':2 'pink':6 'sam':1 'wear':4 'wig':7

Something with an anthropomorphic name is announced

'announc':7 'anthropomorph':4 'name':5 'someth':1

The word "or" is said in the first 3 minutes of the livestream (with someone speaking)

'3':9 'first':8 'livestream':13 'minut':10 'said':5 'someon':15 'speak':16 'word':2

Llama, Claude, or Gemini mentioned by name

'claud':2 'gemini':4 'llama':1 'mention':5 'name':7

A less censored model, or an option to make existing models less censored, is announced.

'announc':15 'censor':3,13 'exist':10 'less':2,12 'make':9 'model':4,11 'option':7

On X, during May 13, Eliezer Yudkowsky criticizes OpenAI or its employees for endangering human civilization

'13':5 'civil':16 'critic':8 'eliez':6 'employe':12 'endang':14 'human':15 'may':4 'openai':9 'x':2 'yudkowski':7

A model is announced with a name like GPT-[Word] or GPT-4-[Word]

'-4':13 'announc':4 'gpt':9,12 'like':8 'model':2 'name':7 'word':10,14

Something is announced which is not specifically a search engine but which could still be reasonably viewed as a significant new threat to Google Search 

'announc':3 'could':13 'engin':10 'googl':24 'new':21 'reason':16 'search':9,25 'signific':20 'someth':1 'specif':7 'still':14 'threat':22 'view':17

Something related to live translation with voice in/out

'in/out':8 'live':4 'relat':2 'someth':1 'translat':5 'voic':7

Someone says "Accelerate", "Acceleration", "Accelerated", "Accelerating", or "E/Acc"

'acceler':3,4,5,6 'e/acc':8 'say':2 'someon':1

There is a reveal in the form of "Actually, this [voice/video/script] your thought came from a person was made with generative AI"

'actual':9 'ai':22 'came':14 'form':7 'generat':21 'made':19 'person':17 'reveal':4 'thought':13 'voice/video/script':11

OpenAI does not reveal GPT-5, but does say we should expect it before 2025 (Includes phrasing like "Our next flagship model" or "GPT-4's successor")

'-4':25 '-5':6 '2025':15 'expect':12 'flagship':21 'gpt':5,24 'includ':16 'like':18 'model':22 'next':20 'openai':1 'phrase':17 'reveal':4 'say':9 'successor':27

'3':1 'one':6 'peopl':2 'stage':4 'time':7

'basic':4 'comput':5 'say':2 'someon':1 'univers':3

OpenAI announces an existing model will be open-sourced

'announc':2 'exist':4 'model':5 'open':9 'open-sourc':8 'openai':1 'sourc':10

A rumour is mentioned/addressed and confirmed untrue

'confirm':6 'mentioned/addressed':4 'rumour':2 'untru':7

Something related to education/academia/students (of any age), or framed as useful for users for these purposes

'age':7 'education/academia/students':4 'frame':9 'purpos':16 'relat':2 'someth':1 'use':11 'user':13

In general, resolution will err towards resolving things YES in ambiguous situations. If it seems like something might count according to the spirit of the answer but the letter is unclear, it will probably count. If the event is postponed, this market will be extended until the event occurs.

Prop Bets

🤖 AI

🤖 OpenAI

🖥️ Technology

https://fortune.com/2024/05/09/more-boeing-whistleblowers-emerge-law-firm/

Boeing

Whistleblower Markets

💼  Business

Law & Order

🎨 Culture

Resolves as Yes if an official IDF spokesperson declares the IDF has entered the city of Rafah en masse in Gaza.

Surgical raids of limited scope will not count, only a large scale clearing operation. If there is no announcement by the IDF but there is overwhelming video evidence, that will be sufficient for Yes. If resolution is very murky as the month ends, up to a week will be taken after market close to wait for clearer evidence. If Rafah is invaded in April, this market will resolve N/A. Please read the pinned comments and stay updated there.

Gaza

🇵🇸 Palestine

🇮🇱 Israel

Arab-Israeli Conflict

🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict

⚔️ Wars

2023 is trending to be the hottest year on record.

🪸 Climate

Global Warming 

🧪 Science

This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question. (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")

This will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject. For exactly when it will resolve, see 

I will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another. As some additional assurance, see 

(For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.)

If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely. (And Manifold lends you your mana back after a few months, so this doesn't negatively impact you.)

"Come from a laboratory" includes both an accidental lab leak and an 

. It also counts if COVID was found in the wild, taken to a lab for study, and then escaped from that lab without any modification. It just needs to have actually been "in the lab" in a meaningful way. A lab worker who was out collecting samples and got contaminated in the wild doesn't count, but it does count if they got contaminated later from a sample that was supposed to be safely contained.

In the event of multiple progenitors, this market resolves YES only if the lab leak was plausibly responsible for the worldwide pandemic. It won't count if the pandemic primarily came from natural sources and then there was also a lab leak that only infected a few people.

COVID

COVID origins 

Past Events

New York Mets beat Milwaukee Brewers - Mar 29

'29':8 'beat':4 'brewer':6 'mar':7 'met':3 'milwauke':5 'new':1 'york':2

Baltimore Orioles beat Los Angeles Angels - Mar 28

'28':8 'angel':5,6 'baltimor':1 'beat':3 'los':4 'mar':7 'oriol':2

Philadelphia Phillies beat Atlanta Braves - Mar 29

'29':7 'atlanta':4 'beat':3 'brave':5 'mar':6 'philadelphia':1 'philli':2

Chicago White Sox beat Detroit Tigers - Mar 28

'28':8 'beat':4 'chicago':1 'detroit':5 'mar':7 'sox':3 'tiger':6 'white':2

Cincinnati Reds beat Washington Nationals - Mar 28

'28':7 'beat':3 'cincinnati':1 'mar':6 'nation':5 'red':2 'washington':4

Houston Astros beat New York Yankees - Mar 28

'28':8 'astro':2 'beat':3 'houston':1 'mar':7 'new':4 'yanke':6 'york':5

Kansas City Royals beat Minnesota Twins - Mar 28

'28':8 'beat':4 'citi':2 'kansa':1 'mar':7 'minnesota':5 'royal':3 'twin':6

Los Angeles Dodgers beat St. Louis Cardinals - Mar 28

'28':9 'angel':2 'beat':4 'cardin':7 'dodger':3 'los':1 'loui':6 'mar':8 'st':5

Miami Marlins beat Pittsburgh Pirates - Mar 28

'28':7 'beat':3 'mar':6 'marlin':2 'miami':1 'pirat':5 'pittsburgh':4

San Diego Padres beat San Francisco Giants - Mar 28

'28':9 'beat':4 'diego':2 'francisco':6 'giant':7 'mar':8 'padr':3 'san':1,5

Tampa Bay Rays beat Toronto Blue Jays - Mar 28

'28':9 'bay':2 'beat':4 'blue':6 'jay':7 'mar':8 'ray':3 'tampa':1 'toronto':5

'28':7 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cub':5 'mar':6 'ranger':2 'texa':1

Oakland Athletics beat Cleveland Guardians - Mar 28

'28':7 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'cleveland':4 'guardian':5 'mar':6 'oakland':1

Arizona Diamondbacks beat Colorado Rockies - Mar 28

'28':7 'arizona':1 'beat':3 'colorado':4 'diamondback':2 'mar':6 'rocki':5

Seattle Mariners beat Boston Red Sox - Mar 28

'28':8 'beat':3 'boston':4 'mar':7 'marin':2 'red':5 'seattl':1 'sox':6

Tampa Bay Rays beat Toronto Blue Jays - Mar 29

'29':9 'bay':2 'beat':4 'blue':6 'jay':7 'mar':8 'ray':3 'tampa':1 'toronto':5

Miami Marlins beat Pittsburgh Pirates - Mar 29

'29':7 'beat':3 'mar':6 'marlin':2 'miami':1 'pirat':5 'pittsburgh':4

Houston Astros beat New York Yankees - Mar 29

'29':8 'astro':2 'beat':3 'houston':1 'mar':7 'new':4 'yanke':6 'york':5

Arizona Diamondbacks beat Colorado Rockies - Mar 29

'29':7 'arizona':1 'beat':3 'colorado':4 'diamondback':2 'mar':6 'rocki':5

Oakland Athletics beat Cleveland Guardians - Mar 29

'29':7 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'cleveland':4 'guardian':5 'mar':6 'oakland':1

San Diego Padres beat San Francisco Giants - Mar 29

'29':9 'beat':4 'diego':2 'francisco':6 'giant':7 'mar':8 'padr':3 'san':1,5

Seattle Mariners beat Boston Red Sox - Mar 29

'29':8 'beat':3 'boston':4 'mar':7 'marin':2 'red':5 'seattl':1 'sox':6

Los Angeles Dodgers beat St. Louis Cardinals - Mar 29

'29':9 'angel':2 'beat':4 'cardin':7 'dodger':3 'los':1 'loui':6 'mar':8 'st':5

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